Help me to Retire

The Aussie dollar today went past .95c US to make a 24 year high. Unfortunately it got that high due to high inflation figures that were released today signaling a likely increase in interest rates in May. Looking at the Aussie $ vs US $ chart once it continues its way through .95 cents the next stop is parity. The Aussie dollar was also stronger against the yen.

Paul Nojin from Invest4Profit.com.au sent out a message today to subscribers concerning Qantas shares. Here’s what he says:
He suspects that Qantas (ASX stock code QAN) is a great buy near $3.28. Based on $3.28 and annual profit of $1b the P/E ratio is below 6. Plus, near $3.28, the dividend is 9.7%! In other words, near $3.28 QAN looks cheap. I do not guarantee it, but in all likelihood, $3.28 will hold. In that light, near $3.28 QAN is superb buying, assuming you wish to own QAN stock.
Qantas definetly sounds like one to keep an eye on.

In other news today I read about China only having 12 days worth of Coal left. Considering that 70% of China’s power comes from its polluting coal power plants, it sounds like they will be buying up a storm in the near future to get their supplies back up.
Fat Prophets have also been sending out emails for the last couple of weeks talking up coal stocks and one of their picks that has gone up 67% recently. Seems like a boom sector at the moment and one to look into.

Good luck with your investing.

Are you interested in currency trading? Then this is your opportunity to learn for free using a practice account and also score your self a free book.

Forex.com are offering the free “Currency trading for dummies” book with every new practice account set up until the end of April.

You can sign up here.   Remember its risk free and no obligation.

In this free report the Alert Trader guys cover the ASX 200, the S & P 500 and plenty of Aussie stocks.

Included in the report are plenty of short term buys and also their longer term view on how far the Aussie market will fall in the coming months.

Check it out here.

Has America’s financial system just been repeating mistakes from 3 generations ago?

Having slowly broken free of the regulations put in place to stop such a banking crisis again it seems that yes, we are in repeat.

The next few years will be very interesting - check out the full article here.

I’ve found a great article that talks about the decline of the largest income bracket age group in America and its effects on GDP and the stock markets.

The article uses Japan as a historic reference and then goes though the same charts with the current American situation.

A very interesting read that can give you a big picture on where markets are heading in the coming years.

Check it out 

With business sentiment continuing to fall, a standard normal recession is starting to sound good… But it seems many economists are now predicting a much worse Deep Recession.
It seems that American housing prices may fall as much as 20% before leveling out leaving many with negative equity (owing more than their house is worth).

The sub prime crisis has plenty more legs in it yet and we won’t see the worst of it until the 2nd half of the year.

Rising inflation is also damping business and consumer confidence.

Interesting times ahead.

Read more here 

I found a handy little article on the myths of leasing a car.

If you are currently looking at getting your self some new wheels, it may well pay off for you to lease the vehicle rather than buy it. Leasing can be good for you if you are on the road lots and only like to keep your cars for a few years. And of course, if you are running your own business there can be some great tax advantages.

Check out the article and perhaps speak to your local finance person to get all the details on what will work out best for you financially.

As the panicky markets around the world have sold off over the last few days / weeks several analysts are looking for a short term bounce in the markets. This can be a great opportunity to make some money on some stocks that have just been sold down because everything is getting sold.
Today will be a telling day as Tolly from Alert Trader using his methods predicted yesterday (22nd Jan 08) as an Intermediate low for the Australian Market. He also believes the mining sector has just about finished its run down for the moment almost testing its support level. Tolly says that “More aggressive traders out there might be very much inclined to put the toe in the water (so to speak), preferably (obviously) with 1 or 2 better quality mining stocks.”

To back this up Paul Nojin from Invest4Profit sent out a message today saying that  “bargains have begun to appear”  and “I have NOT made a new stock recommendation since the 3rd quarter of last year, but I will be in the next fortnight, or sooner. It will depend on how far it falls. I’m particularly focused on stocks in the commodities sector.”
He then goes on to talk about BHP. “First and foremost I want to have BHP back on my list of buys. I expect I will be notifying clients in the next 24 hours when to buy. BHP is going to fall further yet… but the bottom is within sight.
It will not go below $29″.

So there you have a couple of pros view on the current situation and maybe a stock to follow up on.
Please remember that the above is for educational purposes only and not professional advice. You should seek professional advice before making any trading decisions.

The markets may recover for a while but I still believe longer term that more downside is likely, so pick your stocks well and good luck with your trading / investing.

While we are on the topic of the Apple company, I found an interesting site called Keynote Index Fund.
The site goes through the history of the Apple Keynote presentations from the MacWorld events for the last 10 years.
The sites table shows the year, the products launched at that event and the corresponding change in stock price.

Overall it looks as if you would have been up overall if you did some trading either side of these events over the years, especially the last couple of years. There is an event coming up next week, so if your into short term trading and you like the sound of the rumoured product releases, give it a crack. Don’t bet your life savings on it though as it’s pretty much gambling.

The best way to take advantage of the Apple stock would have course been to buy some stock in 1997 and held it to today! Hindsight.

Check it out